A Different World a Few Miles South

Living in Fairfax County I end up working mostly in Fairfax County, but as my slogan is, "I learn something new in real estate everyday so you don't have to." I figure those I want referrals from need to be well informed or at least be able to prove to people that I do my homework. Today I went to work on learning about my sister's subdivision.

The first thing I noticed when I pulled up the active listings is that there were a lot. In most subdivisions in Fairfax county it is good luck to find more than two active listings. In just this one subdivision in Stafford county there are 20 active listings. That is the close to an amount that could be found in some zip codes further north.


Even though there are more listing in that subdivision the market absorption rate isn't too far off from Northern Virginia at 1.81 and that is a typical absorption rate that can be found in subdivisions in Fairfax County. From looking at the number of active listings it is obvious that Stafford County is having some activity, and in fact that might be helped by the low inventory in Fairfax and Prince William Counties.

Stafford County is sitting in an interesting position right now. For the price of a condo in Fairfax County a person can buy a single family home in Stafford. Depending on a person's commute that might be a very appealing idea. For 45 minutes to an hour of extra drive time in the morning and afternoon someone could live in a home as opposed to a one bedroom one bath condo. There have to be people out there that are willing to trade time in rush hour for the opportunity to own a house.

And that might be what people mean when they say the capital region is going to lead the country out of the housing recession. Think of it like this. Prices are rising in Northern Virginia while counties like Stafford are lagging behind. Soon the people looking in a price range in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties won't be able to get the house they want in those locations. They will then face a choice. To change the type of house they are looking for or to change the location.

Some of those people will be willing to change location and with prices having yet to recover in Stafford the demand there will start to increase. With extremely low inventory in Northern Virginia buyers might already be at an impasse and having to think about expanding their search into more distant territory. Stafford stands to benefit from the changing climate in Northern Virginia.

All of this is going to take time, but it is coming. The information I am delivering to my sister is bad news. Prices are bad for sellers in Stafford County, but they won't always be, and as people get priced out of Northern Virginia the demand in counties like Stafford simply has to rise, and with rising demand comes a rise in price, or as wiser men than me have said, "A rising tide raises all ships."

I learn something new in real estate everyday
so you don't have to
David Huzzard
www.SuperNovaRealty.com